Ukraine’s air defense’s performance in shooting down targets is getting worse as Russia increases its attacks with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles, and uses more difficult-to-block weapons such as ballistic missiles.

Data released by the Ukrainian Air Force Command shows that the country’s air defense in the past 6 months intercepted about 46% of Russian missiles, down from 73% in the previous 6 months.

In the past 6 months, Ukraine knocked out 82% of Russia’s Geran-2 UAVs, a target that flies slowly and is easier to intercept than missiles.

Number of Russian missiles and UAVs attacking Ukraine from October 2022 to April. Graphics: UAF, WSJ

While information on the number of targets shot down may be incomplete, a Ukrainian air force spokesman and an independent defense expert said the data `provides an accurate overall picture`.

Russian forces in the past 6 months have launched 45% more missiles and UAVs than in the previous 6 months.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on May 12 that the country’s Congress was slow to approve military aid for many months, causing Ukraine to pay the price.

A European military intelligence official said that the next two months will be very important for Ukraine to hold back the Russian air force, before Kiev receives new supplies of anti-aircraft weapons from the West.

Smoke and fire rose in Kiev during an air strike in May 2023.

Patriot is the only reliable complex for Ukraine to defeat ballistic missiles, converted S-300 missiles and Russian hypersonic missiles.

The Pentagon said it would send more Patriot missile ammunition to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Force refused to provide the number of Patriot complexes it owns, but said `the number can be counted on the fingers of one hand`.

Locations attacked by Russian missiles and UAVs from February 2022 to April. Graphics: ISW, ACTP

Ukraine has received many other Western air defense systems, including NASAMS and IRIS-T.

The air war between Russia and Ukraine will likely come down to whichever side maintains its missile supply longer and will gain the upper hand.

A Ukrainian official said Russia still has missiles in reserve and can produce 170 shells per month.

Location of Russia launching UAVs and missiles to attack Ukraine.